Last
time I spoke here, I gave an overview of the ethnic composition of the country on
the eve of the Civil War, and I suggested how that dynamic may have contributed
eventually to the war. Tonight, I'll describe
how those various tribes in the prewar era expressed their differing views in
politics and in law.
I
want to start out with two quotations, with the first being from a Union
soldier from Iowa, Eugene Fitch Ware, who declared in his postwar memoirs: "The Civil War was a battle of ideas
interrupted by artillery." The
other is from the noted French observer Alexis de Tocqueville, who wrote in
1835: "There is hardly any
political question in the United States that sooner or later does not turn into
a judicial question." These two quotes
well encapsulate our great matter tonight.
I'll
start at the beginning of the country by debunking a certain revisionist
historian by the name of Abraham Lincoln.
One contention of his to be viewed with great skepticism concerned the relative
importance of slavery in early America.
Lincoln argued in the 1850s that the Founders were deeply embarrassed by
slavery and strove to restrict it. His
most memorable statement to this effect was the 1854 Peoria Speech. [SLIDE] In criticizing the Kansas-Nebraska Act, he
said the words "slave" and "slavery" do not even appear in
the Constitution itself because the Founders wanted slavery hidden away
"just as an afflicted man hides away a wen or a cancer." Instead, they used phrases like "a
person held to service of labour" or "other persons," that is,
other than free persons.
The
trouble is that from my research, it's difficult to conclude that slavery was
that big an issue at the time, such that many of the Founders were terribly
embarrassed about it. True, some spoke very
eloquently against slavery at the Constitutional Convention, but hardly most of
them. After all, slavery existed in
every one of the original thirteen states in 1776, and by 1787, the time of the
Constitutional Convention, it had been completely abolished in only one, that
being Massachusetts. In 1858, Stephen
Douglas pointed out that first fact at the Ottawa debate and the second one at
the Alton debate, to neither of which did Mr. Lincoln make a peep.
Another
problem with Lincoln's revisionism lies in what I call the composition
technique of "flexible vagueness."
Often in drafting contracts or laws, the wording may be left somewhat
general to allow for future developments, to allow for wiggle room. The Constitution does use the expression
"persons held to service or labour" in the so-called fugitive-slave
clause, which authorizes the retrieval of escaped slaves. It's most likely, then, that the Founders
used that general broader term because at that time, indentured servitude was still
a fact of life in many parts of the country.
You didn't want to use the word "slave" because that might
limit you. So rather than being
offensive, the terms "slave" and "slavery" may have simply suffered
from being too technically restrictive.
Even
the infamous 3/5ths clause whereby each non-free person was counted for 3/5ths
of a free person for purposes of representation in the House of Representatives
seemed more an accounting issue than a moral one. The starting position of the North was that
if slaves are property, you don't count them for representation. But in the end, the 3/5ths clause was
apparently arrived at quite amicably.
Creditors in the North were particularly anxious to have the South in
the Union in order to have the full faith and credit clause so they could
enforce judgments in the Southern states, so this was worth compromising
over. The Constitution, after all, has a
heavy economic aspect to it.
Another
event at around this same time that provided fodder to revisionist historian
Lincoln was the passage of the Northwest Ordinance of 1787 by the Continental
Congress before the ratification of the Constitution. [SLIDE] It prohibited slavery from that area granted
to the United States by the Treaty of Paris that was west of the original
thirteen states, north of the Ohio River, and extending out to the Mississippi. It was also ratified by the first Congress
under the Constitution. Now the
Northwest Ordinance is a little mysterious, and there is not much legislative
history about it. But again, Lincoln
certainly seized on it in the 1850s to support his view that the Founders
intended to restrict slavery. It is not
at all clear, though, that the issue was “fully briefed,” that is, whether
anyone who would care was really paying attention.
Some
historians have concluded that the South did not resist it because other issues
were more important, and so letting it pass was more a matter of "horse -trading,”
more a matter of mere bargaining. And
other historians believe that the South actually did not want slaves in this
region as it would mean economic competition from another slave economy. So it is hard to conclude that the Northwest
Ordinance established any broad moral principle of restricting slavery. It did certainly establish, however, the
narrower precedent that the Founders believed that Congress had authority to
legislate as to slavery in the territories, and we will see that become a
hot-button issue later and an important argument against the Kansas-Nebraska
Act and the Dred Scott decision.
After
the Constitutional Convention and the passage of the Northwest Ordinance, we
don’t have much activity on slavery until 1819, about twenty years later. In that year, Missouri applied for admission
to the Union as a slave state. [SLIDE] And this was
not at all unexpected as it had been part of the Louisiana Purchase where
slavery had been allowed by both the Spanish and French colonial
authorities. And in fact, the treaty
entered into in conjunction with the Louisiana Purchase had guaranteed its
inhabitants their rights in property including slaves. The trouble comes up when a New York
congressman named James Tallmadge offers an amendment to the Missouri statehood
bill that would prohibit slavery in the future state.
Now
we really start to see the Union fraying.
But it is still not necessarily about morality. Rather, many in the North were bothered by
the continuing application of the 3/5ths clause. Why should the South benefit in the House of
Representatives when it was the North whose white population was growing. It seemed that the South was breeding its
population base for the House of Representatives, and as we well know, for
additional votes in the Electoral College.
For its part, the South took offense at the idea that Missouri not being
allowed into the Union because it sought admission as a slave state. It was an affront to their societies.
I
should explain also that at this time, much more of the North was becoming
“free,” for example, by 1819, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, New
Hampshire, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Vermont had all joined Massachusetts
as either immediately free or gradually free states. (In some cases, that would be very
gradual: According to the 1850 Census,
New Jersey still had 50 slaves.) And by
1819, Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois had been admitted as free states, in
accordance with the Northwest Ordinance.
In
the end, a compromise was reached by legislative maneuvering. Part of the deal was statehood for free
Maine, which had applied for statehood after Missouri, but, of course, it
immediately became hostage to Missouri’s fate.
The critical part of the deal was the Thomas amendment proposed by
Senator Jesse Thomas of Illinois. That
amendment provided for the Missouri Compromise line, whereby except for
Missouri slavery would be “forever” prohibited in the Louisiana Purchase north
of latitude 36° 30′.
The
Missouri Compromise represents the first time since the adoption of the Bill of
Rights that you have a significant "tinkering" in a political science
sense with the nature of the country.
Previously with the admission process, you just had an up-or-down
vote. During the Illinois statehood
debate, some had objected that its proposed constitution was not sufficient
anti-slavery, but that didn't amount to much, and the nation just kept growing
and growing. Generally, little
discussion was had over the nature of the individual societies seeking
statehood. But now, you have a line in
the sand. So the Union is definitely
changing.
Now
again we have to deal with another revisionist historian, now one John C.
Calhoun. [SLIDE] In later railing against the Missouri
Compromise in the 1840s, Calhoun argued that it had been almost uniformly
opposed by the South and that the region as a whole had never agreed to such a
restriction on slavery. And in making
this astounding claim, he liked to quote Jefferson's statement that the
Missouri Compromise was a "fire bell in the night," that is, a dire
signal of the country being divided up. It's
certainly true that Mr. Jefferson was concerned, for despite his youthful
idealism, he had become increasingly conservative in his last years,
particularly after the slave uprising in Santo Domingo, present-day Haiti. But still, the fact remains that the Missouri
Compromise could simply not have passed without significant Southern
support. And in a pattern that would
repeat again and again, the compromise was achieved through the efforts of
moderates in both regions, while extremists in both regions voiced
full-throated but ineffective opposition.
And
to debunk Calhoun a little further, many in the South did believe that they
were getting the better part of the deal with just having the area south of 36°
30′. Let's take a look at the map again. [SLIDE] Remember we have a different perspective
nowadays. Even though the area of the
Louisiana Purchase south of 36° 30′ seems pretty limited, what
was in the north? Or more specifically,
who was in the north? There were the
Sioux and other rather powerful tribes.
Admittedly in the south, you still had New Spain and later Mexico to
contend with, but already we had aspirations of manifest destiny, even though
the term hadn't been coined yet.
After
the Missouri Compromise, slavery as an issue receded somewhat for few
years. One reason may be that Missouri
was out at the far range of settlement, and it took the rest of the country
some time to catch up, so as to make the Missouri Compromise line even
relevant. And after all, Michigan, for
example, did not be become a state until another sixteen years after Missouri,
so that's some indication of how uneven the advance of civilization was. We visualize the pioneers moving west in a
sort of rippling wave effect.
The
slavery issue doesn't heat up again until 1831.
In that year, William Lloyd Garrison founds his newspaper "The
Liberator" and begins turning abolitionism into large-scale movement. Also, in that same year, Nat Turner leads his
bloody slave uprising, which certainly shakes up the South. [SLIDE] Now the mails will be searched for
abolitionist material, and Northerners travelling in the South will be hassled,
a foretelling of Easy Rider. Even though
you have this abolitionist movement gaining steam along with a Southern
backlash, slavery as an issue is still somewhat suppressed or dampened by the
two-party system. Jacksonian Democrats
are mostly Southern but still don't want to unduly antagonize their Northern brethren. And at the same time, most Whigs are
Northerners who don't want offend their Southern wing. So for a long time, slavery is one of those
issues that people prefer to paper over somehow. Let's not talk about it. Let's just watch football.
But
in the 1840s with the acquisition of Texas and later, after the Mexican War,
with the acquisition of the Mexican Cession, this issue can't be easily
ignored. [SLIDE] We have more questions as to how we are to
expand. Will it be an empire of liberty
or an empire of slavery? As I alluded to
earlier, this is the time that John C. Calhoun begins to challenge the status
quo, even while claiming, as Lincoln did, the legacy of the Founders. In particular, he stressed the idea of the
territories as common property into which Southerners are allowed to bring
their slaves. To deny this would be to
deny Southerners their property rights under the Fifth Amendment.
Anti-slavery
forces also become assertive. For
example, when the Mexican War began, the Polk Administration sought an
appropriation of $2 million. We then see
the appearance of the Wilmot Proviso, the most famous un-enacted legislation in
American history. David Wilmot, a
Pennsylvania Democrat, was annoyed over a number of things that President Polk
had done. He had not agreed to the level
of tariff Wilmot and other Democrats wanted.
He vetoed an internal improvements bill.
And he sold out Oregon, or at least what they called Oregon, and what we
today call roughly British Columbia.
You
see, Northerners wanted to expand too, and up to the line of 54° 40′, hence the slogan "54 40 or
fight." But anticipating Lincoln's
dictum of "one war at a time," Polk entered into his own
non-aggression pact with Britain, settling on the 49th parallel, so
the U.S. could focus on Mexico. So the
Northern Democrats were upset about those specifics but also about the general
Southern orientation of the Polk Administration.
The Wilmot
Proviso was offered as a rider to the appropriations bill sought by President
Polk and was modeled on the Northwest Ordinance: "Provided, That, as an express and
fundamental condition to the acquisition of any territory from the Republic of
Mexico by the United States by virtue of any treaty which may be negotiated
between them, and to the use by the Executive of the money herein appropriated,
neither slavery nor involuntary servitude shall ever exist in any part of said
territory except for crime, whereof the party shall first be duly
convicted."
With the
support of Northern Democrats and anti-expansionist Whigs, such as Congressman
Lincoln, the appropriations bill with the Wilmot Proviso attached passes the
House. The effect was to embarrass the
Polk Administration and to place Southern Democrats in the awkward position of
delaying expansion in favor of slavery.
Congress adjourned before the bill could go to the Senate, but in the
next session, the House passed the bill again with the proviso attached, and it
was defeated in the Senate where the South held the balance of power with 15
slave states and 14 free. Eventually, Polk
got his money by arm-twisting Northern Democrats, which goes to suggest that
the Wilmot Proviso maybe was less a matter of sacred principle than a matter of
expressing discontent with Polk. But the
Wilmot Proviso left a legacy in that it was repeatedly revived and many politicians,
including Lincoln, came to call themselves "Wilmot men."
In 1848,
Zachary Taylor, a Southern Whig slaveholder, is elected President. In some ways, he is like Andrew Jackson as a
general with more of a national than a regional perspective, and similarly,
like Jackson, he tended to disappoint Southerners. Under his presidency, pressures are building
due to the immense acquisition of territory from Mexico. Particularly with the Gold Rush and the huge
increase in population in California, the need was desperate to organize the
Mexican Cession. And of course whether
these areas would be slave or free was paramount. Outgoing President Polk had suggested simply
extending the Missouri Compromise line to the Pacific. The Wilmot men proposed instead a free
territorial government for California.
Once Taylor
assumed office, he decided to accelerate the admission process for both
California and the New Mexico. (Keep in
mind, at this time, New Mexico referred to current New Mexico, Arizona and the
southern part of Nevada. And what was
called Utah was current Utah, the rest of Nevada, and a hunk of western
Colorado.) Since both those regions had
already displayed clear anti-slavery tendencies, the South accused Taylor of
tipping his hand. And the feeling of
betrayal by Southern Whigs was profound.
Alexander Stephens [SLIDE], later Vice-President of the
Confederacy and one of the leaders of the Southern Whigs now became a
vociferous Southern-rights advocate, insisting that slavery could not be
excluded from California and New Mexico.
So this was the beginning of the end of the Whig Party.
As in 1820, we
have another compromise, although one much more complex. And it is due mostly to the master
politician, Henry Clay [SLIDE], the Great
Compromiser. California was admitted
free and intact. Texas gave up its claims
to Greater Texas in exchange for the Federal Government assuming its debt. The territories of Utah and New Mexico are
allowed to apply the concept of Popular Sovereignty, that is, let the people
there in those territories decide. Also
the slave trade is banned in the District of Columbia, and a more stringent
Fugitive Slave Law is enacted. So there
is something for everyone. Southerners
had wanted to split California, but they succeeded in preventing the Wilmot
Proviso from being applied to New Mexico.
Everyone seemed pretty happy for a while.
Our next
turning point comes in 1854. The
question remained of what to do with the remaining unorganized parts of the
Louisiana Purchase, and now on stage enters Stephen Douglas. [SLIDE] He had been instrumental in facilitating
the Compromise of 1850, but now he really takes center stage. Douglas was anxious to see a railroad from
Chicago to San Francisco, and to do that, the regions in between had to be
organized. So he presented a bill, the
Kansas-Nebraska Act, to organize most of the Louisiana Purchase north of 36° 30′, under Popular Sovereignty. It was good enough for New Mexico and Utah,
let's use it here. The bill passes the
House, but stalls in the Senate where Southerners want a Wilmot Proviso in
reverse. They want the Missouri
Compromise line of 1820 explicitly repealed, so as to allow slavery to sweep
into the plains. Douglas agrees to this
result, arguing Popular Sovereignty conflicts with the Missouri Compromise
line, which is true. If the people in
the Dakotas want slavery, the Missouri Compromise line would prohibit
that. Douglas then bullied President
Franklin Pierce into making the Kansas-Nebraska Act a party measure for
Democrats, and with enough arm-twisting, he was able to get it through.
In
understanding how the Kansas-Nebraska Act passed with any Northern support, we
must recall the realpolitik assumption
of many that slavery had reached its natural limits. It would just not take root outside of the
old South. Either the indigenous society
or nature would prohibit it. And this
was not a new view. When the Wilmot
Proviso was first proposed, even an anti-slavery stalwart like John Quincy
Adams, suggested it was unnecessary as slavery would not take hold in the
Mexican Cession. And in the debates
leading up to the Compromise of 1850, Daniel Webster had asked, why re-enact
the will of God? Now of course, many
Southerners claimed that slaves could be used in the mines and elsewhere. But still, many Northerners were willing to
take that chance in the name of compromise.
With the
shotgun wedding of the Kansas-Nebraska Act, the blowback was immediate, leading
to the so-called anti-Nebraska movement.
(And if there are any Huskers in the audience, please don’t take that
personally.) And this movement evolved
into the Republican Party. And
naturally, this story of how one side perceives legislation as being shoved
down its throat being followed by widespread resistance to that legislation should
be familiar to anyone who has followed American politics of the last eight
years or so. And nowadays, of course, we
are seeing widespread resistance to repeal of that same legislation, so we
continue to be a passionate people. But
I digress.
The
Kansas-Nebraska Act is also what brought Abraham Lincoln back into politics,
and it is his Peoria Speech that entered history as that de facto platform of
the emerging Republican Party, which expressly opposed the extension of slavery
into the territories, while still being moderate in letting slavery be for now
in the Southern states.
Concomitantly,
the Kansas-Nebraska Act is the end of the Whig Party. And it is one of the mysteries of our
political history why the Whigs could not capitalize on the anti-Nebraska
discontent and at least remain a power in the North. No agreement on that by historians. One view is that it never had the clout, the
authority, to maintain itself. After
all, many had seen it as a retread of the old Federalist Party, which imploded
after the War of 1812 for being too soft on the British. And it had actually only won two elections,
and the second time only with Zachary Taylor pretending not to be a Whig. (He was a WINO, Whig in name only.) In any event, the anti-slavery Whigs join the
disaffected Democrats and other factions to create this admittedly sectional
Northern party.
The scene now
shifts to bleeding Kansas [SLIDE], and the
events occurring there are to the Civil War what the Spanish Civil War was to
World War II, that is, a sort of dress rehearsal of the ideologies in conflict
and some of the same actors. The
proslavery elements move in from Missouri and elect a bogus territorial
government at Lecompton, while settlers from the Midwest, supported by the New
England Emigrant Aid Societies, establish a competing government in
Topeka. Always anxious to appease the
South, President Pierce brands the Topeka government revolutionary but also
does nothing to stop it. Violence
escalates with the sack of Lawrence, the Pottawatomie massacre by John Brown,
and in the midst of it all comes the savage beating of Charles Sumner, Senator
from Massachusetts, by a South Carolina congressman, following Sumner's Senate
address entitled "The Crime against Kansas."
The conflict
provides the background to the presidential election of 1856, when the
Republican Party runs its first candidate, John C. Fremont. But the election of 1856 can almost be called
another one of the prewar compromises we've seen tacked together at the last
moment. The general mood of the
electorate was to save the Union at any cost, and so even another
pro-Southerner such as James Buchanan was preferable to war. At the same time, it is obvious the clock is
ticking down to war since Fremont wins all the upper North, making it only a
matter of time before demography supplies the answer.
In March, 1857,
two days after the inauguration of Buchanan, the Justices of the Supreme Court
file their various opinions in the Dred Scott case, another seismic event
comparable to the effect of the Kansas-Nebraska Act. [SLIDE] To give you my freshman brief of the
case, Dred Scott was the slave of an Army surgeon, John Emerson, who originally
lived in Missouri, but who was later assigned to a posting in Illinois and to
Fort Snelling, on the west side of the Mississippi River in modern-day
Minnesota. Illinois was certainly a free
state, and Fort Snelling was in free territory according to the Missouri
Compromise. Dr. Emerson took Dred Scott
with him, and they resided in each posting for about two years. Once back in Missouri, Dred Scott, encouraged
by abolitionist friends, sued in state court for his freedom, arguing he should
be free by virtue of his extended residences in a free state and in a free
territory. And in the past, such suits
had succeeded, even in Missouri state courts.
But this time, the litigation took over 11 years and involved both the
Missouri courts and the Federal courts, finally culminating in the most
infamous decision in Supreme Court history.
It could easily consume several hours to narrate all the various
strategies and arguments that arose in all those years because not only do you
have the natural creativity of lawyers at work, but you also have a lot of
political considerations, some of which did not necessarily benefit Dred Scott
as a client.
Let me boil
down most astringently what was at stake:
First, was Dred Scott a citizen such that he was even entitled to sue in
the courts in the first place? Second,
did his extended residences in Illinois and at Fort Snelling have the effect of
freeing him? Every justice of the Supreme
Court wrote some kind of opinion, with the final tally being that seven said
Dred Scott should not be freed and two said he should. The majority opinion came to be recognized as
the opinion of Chief Justice Roger Taney.
[SLIDE] (By
the way, that is spelled T-A-N-E-Y but pronounced "taw-nee.")
Taney began his
opinion by discussing Negro citizenship as that had an effect on the court's
jurisdiction to hear the case in the first place. Taney found that Negroes, either emancipated
or enslaved, could simply not be citizens.
To him, they were not part of the sovereign people covered by the
Declaration of Independence. In his
view, at the time of the Constitutional Convention, they had "no rights
that a white man is bound to respect."
The two dissenters strenuously objected to this view, noting especially
how Negroes had been recognized as citizens and voters and jurors and soldiers
in several of the original thirteen colonies, including North Carolina.
Taney went on
to the merits by addressing Dred Scott's residence at Fort Snelling. He explained that it was not truly free
territory because the Missouri Compromise line was unconstitutional insofar as
it prevented a slaveholder from taking his property there. To prevent a slaveholder from moving his slaves,
that is, his property, without due process of law would violate the Fifth
Amendment.
So to Taney, slaveholders
would be deprived of constitutional protection if they could not take their
slaves anywhere they wanted in Louisiana Purchase, and this Congress could not
do through the device of the Missouri Compromise line.
Taney next discussed Dred
Scott's residence in Illinois, describing it more as a "sojourn,"
something in the nature of a mere transit through a free state, which status
had traditionally been allowed slaveholders traveling in the North. But even if it had been a long enough stay to
free Dred Scott, since he sued once he returned to Missouri, the doctrine of "reversion"
came into effect to cause a returned freed slave to revert to the status of a
slave.
Now not only did the Dred
Scott opinion invalidate the Missouri Compromise line, but it effectively
outlawed the platform of the Republican Party.
And as in our time, the strategy was then to elect a President who would
appoint justices who would overturn it.
Now was Stephen Douglas
laughing at the discomfort of the Republicans?
No, because Dred Scott also invalidated Popular Sovereignty,
specifically declaring that no territorial legislature had the authority to
prohibit slavery. So how did Douglas respond
to this decision? Douglas made the
strange argument that even if the people of the territories could not formally
prohibit slavery, they could effectively prohibit it by failing to enact legislation
to protect it. This became known as the
Freeport Doctrine, as it came in an answer to Lincoln the next year in the
debate at Freeport, Illinois. And it was
interesting how in those debates, it was a continuing theme of Douglas's to describe
Republicans as revolutionaries because they opposed the Dred Scott decision,
yet with this "unfriendly legislation" angle, Douglas is shameless in
supposedly honoring a Supreme Court decision in the abstract, while endorsing
anything that will undo its underlying spirit.
In 1858 [SLIDE],
the Lincoln-Douglas senatorial debates served to clearly articulate how the
North viewed the Dred Scott decision. On
the one hand, Lincoln made the case that the slave power and their Northern
allies wished to nationalize slavery, and all it would take was a second Dred
Scott decision, which we will call Dred Scott II, a case where a slave was held
in a free state for longer than a "sojourn." And since Dred Scott I said Congress and a
territorial legislature could not prohibit slavery due to the Fifth Amendment,
how could a state ever prohibit slavery?
So it would mean the realization of the prophecy of Lincoln in his House
Divided speech that we will become all one thing or all the other, but now the
one thing would be all slavery. I was
picking on Lincoln earlier for not being an exacting historian, but I have to
agree he was a great prophet.
In response, Douglas gave his
most unconvincing argument by insisting that the Supreme Court would never hand
down a Dred Scott II decision. And many
in the North held a similarly blinkered view.
But at that same time, Dred Scott II was coming. The case was called Lemmon v. The
People. In Lemmon, a slave trader sent a
number of slaves to New York City for further transshipment to Texas. While in New York, the slaves sued for their
freedom under New York state law.
So this is a distinction,
correct, from Dred Scott as they seized the moment and sued in a free-state
forum? You would not have reversion,
which was Dred Scott's partial undoing. In March, 1860, the New York Supreme Court
held for the slaves and freed them.
There is little doubt that if the war hadn't intervened, the slaveholder
would have appealed to the Supreme Court, and there is no reason to believe
that the stern logic of Dred Scott would not have applied to the case. The New York Supreme Court would be ruled to
have violated the slaveholder's Fifth Amendment rights.
So on the eve of the election
of 1860, we are at the end of a train of crucial political and legal events
stretching back to 1819. As Lincoln the
prophet explained it, the South would not be satisfied until the whole country,
not just the territories, was open to slavery.
In this view, the irony is that it was the North, through the engine of
the Republican Party, that was truly fighting for states' rights, not the
South.
POSTSCRIPT:
If I could go off tangent for
a minute, many writers have applied the alternative history method to the Civil
War, starting back in the fifties with a novel called "Come the
Jubilee," which apparently inspired Phillip K. Dick to write his alternative
history of World War II "The Man in the High Castle." These are worthwhile exercises, assuming they
are grounded in some logical premises.
Usually the South wins or at least isn't defeated. But I would like to pose this kind of thought
experiment several years before the war.
For example, what if Polk was more anti-British and decided to push up
into Canada, precipitating the third Anglo-American war. And to facilitate that, Polk decides to enter
into a non-aggression pact with Mexico, and we reach a modus vivendi whereby
the western Texas border is worked out but California, Arizona, and part of New
Mexico remain under Mexico. Would the
South then realize that it could not expand west with the slave power and so resign
itself to staying in the Union, but only as long as it gets Cuba and other
islands in the Caribbean. So maybe then
the Spanish-American war takes place about thirty years sooner. In the meantime, gold is discovered in Alta
California. With the undoubted influx of immigrants from the United States, would Mexico develop into a more diverse society and perhaps even a liberal democracy? Would Mexico end up in
greater parity with the United States on this continent?
Another turning point to
speculate on is the Compromise of 1850.
What if it was worked out that Missouri Compromise line was extended to
the Pacific, cutting California almost in half.
Slavery would be theoretically allowed, but as so many wondered, would
it be feasible? Or would it die out as
it did in the North? And then the
question becomes what would have happened to slavery in the deep South? Even Thomas Jefferson believed it may
eventually come to an end. After all,
slavery was eventually outlawed in Brazil without great disruption. Without this matter of the territories being
closed off would you have had this trigger that began the war?